Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Will there be a deluge of capital inflows in 2010

Can the foreign capital which went out during the financial turmoil come again in 2010?This question emerges as India and China recorded high growth rates in the third quarter of 2009.Throughout 2009 dollar depreciated by 13% against other currencies.But now as the world economy gets into revival and the lack of improvement in the US economic data,capital flows may increase.It is unlikely that the interest rates in the US may rise as the Fed Chairman concedes that the economy still requires extraordinary attention.As the short term interest rates is currently zero the dollar carry trade may continue for few more months.The dollar carry trade refers to borrowing in dollars and investing in assets in other countries in their currencies.For avoiding this situation there should prevail normalcy in the interest rate policy in the US which may re-orient carry trade towards Japanese yen or Swiss franc.Nevertheless we doesn't need to worry too much about high flows as it is required to finance our current account deficit although it hurts our exports.

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